What are the Hot hand fallacy and the gambler’s fallacy?

What are the Hot hand fallacy and the gambler's fallacy?

When we talk about fallacies, there is one thing that comes to our mind randomly: luck. From ancient times to the 21st century, people also strongly believed that the only way to win a game or fallacy is that good luck. Luck of understanding is the only fact behind the reason for this myth.

To understand the proper meaning of hot hand fallacy and gambler’s fallacy, you must know what fallacies? How does it actually work? 

Hot hand fallacy and gambler’s fallacy are two opposite things. Hot hand fallacy describes the thing that we believe, and that is if you continuously win two or three parts of the game, there is a huge chance to win in the future also, and that occurs because of your good luck. The gambler’s fallacy is when you lose randomly, and suddenly you win some next part of your game. But then you strongly believe that it does not happen in the future also. There will be a great chance to happen something opposite. It’s just based on belief, not on any calculation. So there is no guarantee that the method will happen every time. Luck is not enough to win or lose a game. Basically, dedication, skills, practice are the keys to win a game.

Hot hand fallacy

The hot hand fallacy is the psychological condition that people believe an individual is hot and cold depending on past performance. When the performance has no bearing on future outcomes, for instance, put effort into this particular concept. The concept is also applied to lots of sports and many more skilled-based tasks. 

The hot hand, also known as the hot hand phenomenon or hot hand fallacy, was considered to be real in this 21st century also. This actually happens when a winning stick has won continuously and completely based on luck. Converse to the game’s independent nature and observed the other lots of factors that determine the actual outcome of the game, the belief is that a person Who was successfully won in the past has a huge chance to further success in future attempts. Rather we said that previous random winning is a symbol of your future winning. So it must be said that many trusts are put on your luck and a little bit put on an uncertain nature of gambling that can favour anyone. Researchers for many years did not find evidence for hot hands in practice. 

Gambler’s fallacy

Gambler’s fallacy is just the opposite of the hot hand fallacy. The gambler’s fallacy is also known as the Monte Carlo fallacy or the fallacy of the maturity of chances. Gambler’s fallacy is a faith that believes that it really happens for your good luck actually when you are on a losing streak but still not loses the game and fortunately, from that particular time, you will start winning, and the luck will turn upside down. But if the result of this game shows that the same thing means you win repeatedly, there will be a huge chance to happen something opposite in the future or said that this would decrease the probability of that outcome in the future. 

The hot hand fallacy and the gambler’s fallacy of them are basically based on beliefs, not on calculation or any other method. But there is some difference between the hot hand fallacy and the gambler’s fallacy. When we talk about the gambling fallacy, we must be well known how it could actually work. So, we must be aware they overlook a lot of factors that come into play. Some casino games as well not only depend on belief but also require a lot of things like practice, skills, etc. These things influence you to play a better outcome to your game.

Problems

The hot hand fallacy and the gambler’s fallacy both of the fallacies have a problem in common; that is, they overlook the random nature of the game. The hot hand fallacy describes our bad tendency to believe that a successful streak is likely to lead to further success. If we win two or three games, then we easily believe that we have a great chance to win in the future or must become a winner in the future also. But it totally believes nothing else, and that’s why sometimes players lose their games also. The gambler’s fallacy is an independent game and every time that you start a new session.

The whole game is sifted, and there is no other way to predict a similar outcome. And sometimes likely if you can win based on your good luck, then the belief is that there will be a huge possibility to win in the future also. But that matter is dedication, practice, and skill are keys to winning a game.

Conclusion

Fallacies are just an alternative for reasoning, but people think it’s the one and only easiest way to win a game instead of hardworking. Not only ancient times but also this 21st-century people have carried lots of wrong thinking about hot hand fallacy and gambling fallacy. To avoid any myth regarding fallacies or games, people must be well known about it. Regarding Hot hand fallacy and the gambler’s fallacy also have old thinking that your previous performance can assure your future also. But it does not work at any time. Fallacies are actually based on luck, not on any calculations, so it can’t assure your future. The only thing that can assure your success is that dedication. So it is better to have a logical understanding of the game instead. Then you will process and upgrade more and more in the future or must become a winner in any game.

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Summary

Name: What are the Hot hand fallacy and the gambler’s fallacy?

Posted On: 25/03/2021

Author: Alex Karidis